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Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board
Sydney -
Members Present
Glenn Stevens (Chairman and Governor), Philip Lowe (Deputy Governor), Martin Parkinson PSM (Secretary to the Treasury), John Akehurst, Jillian Broadbent AO, Roger Corbett AO, John Edwards, Heather Ridout, Catherine Tanna
Others Present
Guy Debelle (Assistant Governor, Financial Markets), Christopher Kent (Assistant Governor, Economic), Jonathan Kearns (Head, Economic Analysis Department), Anthony Dickman (Secretary), Peter Stebbing (Deputy Secretary)
International Economic Conditions
Members began their discussion by noting that global economic conditions outside of Europe appeared to have stabilised over recent months, although sentiment remained somewhat fragile. The US economy had continued to expand at a moderate pace. Indications were that growth had slowed to a more sustainable pace in China, and activity had generally picked up elsewhere in east Asia. Even so, activity in the euro area was still contracting. Global inflation pressures remained subdued, despite some boost to headline measures from elevated oil prices. With financial markets remaining unsettled, the risks emanating from Europe continued to cloud the global outlook.
In April, the IMF lifted its forecasts for global growth to 3.5 per cent in 2012 and 4.1 per cent in 2013, with small upward revisions for both years since its January forecasts. As had been the case in recent years, emerging market economies, particularly in Asia, were expected to be the main driver of global growth. The IMF continued to see the balance of risks to the global economy weighted to the downside.
In Europe, aggregate measures of consumer confidence had improved and exports had picked up. Retail sales and investment indicators had steadied at lower levels. The combination of this and the deterioration in business conditions was indicative of ongoing contraction in output of the region as a whole. Members noted that while European leaders had made some progress in addressing fiscal imbalances and implementing structural reforms, much work still needed to be done. Further, the task continued to be complicated by the negative feedback loop between fiscal consolidation, private-sector deleveraging and weak growth.
For the US economy, members noted that GDP growth had slowed slightly in the March quarter, which, along with other data, confirmed that growth had been a little below trend. Labour market conditions remained positive, which had been supporting consumption, although indicators of business investment and flat industrial production suggested that growth had slowed in recent months. Members observed that the housing market would probably continue to weigh on economic activity for some time, with a large number of mortgages still in foreclosure. Furthermore, uncertainty regarding the legislated fiscal consolidation in 2013 was another factor likely to weigh on household and business confidence during the period ahead.
Growth in China had moderated to a more sustainable pace, with GDP growing by 1.8 per cent in the March quarter, to be 8.1 per cent higher over the year. The slowdown was largely attributed to slower growth in domestic demand, as had been intended by the Chinese authorities through tighter domestic policies. Nevertheless, the residential property market remained weak, with property prices continuing to fall. Activity in the rest of east Asia continued to recover from the natural disasters in 2011, which had disrupted supply chains throughout the region. Business and consumer confidence had generally improved, while exports had been supported by a pick-up in demand from the United States. Inflation pressures across the region had continued to moderate.
Commodity prices overall had been relatively stable recently, and had increased only slightly over the year to date. The spot price for iron ore had continued to drift higher since the start of the year, consistent with signs of a recovery in Chinese steel production as well as some supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil. In contrast, coking coal prices had softened as supply from Queensland had returned to its level prior to the flooding in early 2011, and base metals prices had trended lower in recent months.
Domestic Economic Conditions
Members noted that the available indicators suggested that the domestic economy had been growing modestly in early 2012, although the pace of activity had continued to vary significantly across industries. The mining sector remained exceptionally strong, with work progressing on the very large pipeline of committed projects and capital imports rising strongly. Mining production had, nevertheless, been disrupted by adverse weather, industrial action and a shortage of explosives.
Conditions faced by many firms not exposed to the mining sector remained weak, with the high level of the exchange rate continuing to weigh on import-competing and exporting firms. Conditions remained particularly difficult in parts of the building, construction and manufacturing industries, as well as for many retailers. Survey measures also pointed to a softening in conditions in the business services sector, consistent with weakness in property markets and the non-mining sectors more generally.
Growth in consumer spending had eased in the December quarter and recent indicators suggested that consumption growth was a little below trend in early 2012, with consumers evidently concerned about their personal finances and job security. Consistent with this, the value of retail sales, which had been one of the weakest components of consumption over the past year, was soft in January and February.
Members were briefed on the continued weakness in the housing market generally and residential building activity in particular. Demand for housing finance had eased in the past few months and recent data suggested that dwelling prices had continued to decline, although there were tentative signs that the pace of decline had been more gradual overall in recent months. Despite dwelling prices declining relative to incomes and rises in rental yields, forward-looking indicators implied little prospect of an imminent recovery in housing construction. Information from liaison suggested that households were unwilling to commit to contracts for new dwellings because of concerns about job security and declining dwelling prices.
Employment growth had picked up a little in the March quarter. Together with a small fall in the participation rate, this had left the unemployment rate at around 5¼ per cent. The decline in participation along with weakness in trend hours worked were indicators of some increase in spare capacity in the labour market in recent months. Members noted that the data showed evidence of structural change, as employment in the mining sector had expanded rapidly while firms in a number of other sectors were responding to heightened competitive pressures by reducing employment in an effort to contain costs and improve productivity. Leading indicators, such as surveys and job vacancies, painted a mixed picture, but generally suggested modest employment growth in the period ahead.
Inflation in the March quarter was lower than expected, with various measures showing underlying inflation of around ¼ per cent in the quarter and 2–2¼ per cent on a year-ended basis. The headline CPI fell by 0.2 per cent in the quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, to be 1.6 per cent higher over the year. A large fall in fruit prices, in particular banana prices, had subtracted 0.3 percentage points from quarterly inflation. More generally, tradables prices declined, reflecting both the softness in consumer demand and further pass-through of the earlier exchange rate appreciation, with the prices of some household goods, clothing and overseas holidays all falling in the quarter. Non-tradables prices, in contrast, increased by 0.7 per cent in the quarter and by 3.5 per cent over the year, underpinned by relatively large increases in a range of services prices but with falls in the prices of domestic travel & accommodation and new dwellings. The slowing in non-tradables inflation, and some of the decline in tradables prices, appeared to indicate that there had been pressure on margins owing to the relative softness in demand in the non-mining sector.
Members were briefed on the updated staff forecasts. The central estimate was for GDP to grow by around 3 per cent over 2012 and 2013, although employment growth was expected to remain subdued in the near term. Forecasts of mining investment had been revised higher, with information from liaison and ABS data indicating more work in the pipeline than had previously been expected. This investment was anticipated to provide stimulus to a number of other sectors, but growth outside of the mining sector was expected to be below trend in the near term, affected by the high exchange rate, softer government spending and subdued conditions in the housing market and building industry more generally. The forecast for export growth had been revised lower, largely reflecting a reassessment of the ability of mining companies to utilise new port and transport capacity fully in the near term, along with weaker manufacturing exports.
Members observed that the expected outlook for inflation was somewhat lower than the previous forecast made in February. Underlying inflation (excluding the effect of the carbon price) was forecast to remain within the lower half of the target range over the next few years, staying close to the recent rate of inflation over the next year before picking up a little later in the forecast period. Headline inflation would be affected by a number of one-off factors in the near term. The unwinding of the earlier spike in fruit prices would hold down year-ended inflation in the first half of 2012, followed by the introduction of the carbon price from the September quarter, which was expected to boost headline inflation by around 0.7 percentage points and underlying inflation by around ¼ percentage point over the year to June 2013.
Financial Markets
Sentiment in global financial markets deteriorated in April, following several months of improvement. Members noted that the deterioration had not been triggered by any particular event but, rather, it reflected renewed concerns about the inter-related state of public finances and weakness of economic activity in the euro area. This had been most evident for Spain and Italy, where yields on government bonds had risen significantly as foreign investors reduced their exposures by not rolling over maturing debt and selling debt in the secondary market.
Imminent elections in France and Greece had spurred further concern on the part of investors, with a risk that parties supportive of the Greek assistance package would not be able to form a new government. Investors had also focused on the Netherlands following the resignation of the Dutch Prime Minister and cabinet because of an inability to agree on fiscal austerity measures.
Reflecting the concerns about the euro area, as well as some weaker-than-expected data in the United States and China, government bond yields for the major advanced economies had declined. Yields on US 10-year bonds had fallen below 2 per cent again, while yields on 10‑year bonds in Germany fell to historic lows. In Australia, the expectation of a reduction in the policy rate had resulted in government bond yields declining by more than those in overseas markets, with the yield on 10-year Australian government debt falling to a 60-year low of 3.64 per cent. Yields on Australian state debt also fell to multi-decade lows, even though spreads to Australian government debt had widened a little over the month.
Members noted that bond issuance by Australian banks had been lower in April, although this followed particularly strong issuance in recent months and in part reflected an issuance blackout ahead of three of the major banks announcing their profit results. Deposit rates at Australian banks remained relatively high, with no sign of competitive pressures easing. Reflecting this, banks' margins were estimated to be somewhat narrower than in the middle of 2011, notwithstanding recent increases in some lending rates.
Global equity markets declined in April, reflecting some large falls in Europe and Japan. Australian equities had outperformed global markets over this period, mainly because Australian bank share prices had risen compared with large falls globally for banks, particularly in Europe.
Currency markets generally had been less affected by the deterioration in global sentiment, although the yen was again appreciating, reversing some of its depreciation earlier in the year. Members observed that the Chinese renminbi had been broadly unchanged over April and that the authorities had announced a wider trading band for the currency. The Australian dollar had also been relatively steady, remaining at a high level both against the US dollar and on a trade-weighted basis, despite the lower-than-expected inflation data.
On domestic monetary policy, members noted that the market was more than fully pricing in a 25 basis point reduction in the cash rate in May, with a 40 per cent chance of a 50 basis point reduction. Market pricing embodied an expectation that the cash rate would decline to 3¼ per cent by the end of the year.
Considerations for Monetary Policy
Although the latest forecasts for global growth had been revised up slightly – with growth rising to around trend in 2013 – members noted that the international economic and financial environment remained quite uncertain. Conditions were weak in the euro area, and the risk of an escalation of sovereign debt problems remained. Prospects were for the US economy to continue its gradual recovery, while growth in China was likely to be slower than in recent years but on a more sustainable footing. Growth in the rest of Asia was expected to increase, despite continuing to be restrained somewhat by the trade and financial linkages with the advanced economies.
Recent evidence suggested that the Australian economy was growing somewhat below trend. While the mining boom continued to gain momentum, overall growth was being weighed down by weakness in other sectors of the economy.
At the same time, credit growth for households had been marginally lower over the past year than over the previous year, and business credit was rising at only a very modest rate. Elevated competitive pressures had kept deposit rates in Australia high relative to the cash rate. At the margin, wholesale funding costs had declined over recent months, though they remained higher, relative to benchmark rates, than in mid 2011, and the lagged effects of this were still working their way through the funding structure. The rise in funding costs had led banks to increase their lending rates over recent months by around 10–12 basis points.
The March quarter CPI had confirmed that, in underlying terms, inflation had slowed over recent quarters after a rise during the early part of 2011. The staff assessment was that inflation was likely to remain in the lower half of the target range over the foreseeable future, with cost pressures expected to be contained given the forecast for moderate growth in the economy. This forecast assumed that the soft conditions currently being experienced would lead to lower growth in unit costs.
Since the Board eased monetary policy late in 2011, new information had led the Bank to lower somewhat its assessment of the pace of growth of the economy. At previous meetings, members had agreed that if slower growth in demand resulted in more moderate inflation, it would strengthen the case for a further easing in monetary policy. Given recently accumulated information on demand and the rate of inflation, together with the revised forecasts that had been presented, members considered it appropriate for monetary policy to be eased. Members noted that interest rates faced by the general community had tended to increase a little since the Board's previous change to the cash rate in December. They judged it to be desirable that interest rates move below those that had prevailed in December. Accordingly, the Board decided that a reduction of 50 basis points in the cash rate was, in this instance, necessary in order to deliver the appropriate level of borrowing rates.
The Decision
The Board decided to lower the cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.75 per cent, effective 2 May.
Sydney -
Members Present
Glenn Stevens (Chairman and Governor), Philip Lowe (Deputy Governor), Martin Parkinson PSM (Secretary to the Treasury), John Akehurst, Jillian Broadbent AO, Roger Corbett AO, John Edwards, Heather Ridout, Catherine Tanna
Others Present
Guy Debelle (Assistant Governor, Financial Markets), Christopher Kent (Assistant Governor, Economic), Jonathan Kearns (Head, Economic Analysis Department), Anthony Dickman (Secretary), Peter Stebbing (Deputy Secretary)
International Economic Conditions
Members began their discussion by noting that global economic conditions outside of Europe appeared to have stabilised over recent months, although sentiment remained somewhat fragile. The US economy had continued to expand at a moderate pace. Indications were that growth had slowed to a more sustainable pace in China, and activity had generally picked up elsewhere in east Asia. Even so, activity in the euro area was still contracting. Global inflation pressures remained subdued, despite some boost to headline measures from elevated oil prices. With financial markets remaining unsettled, the risks emanating from Europe continued to cloud the global outlook.
In April, the IMF lifted its forecasts for global growth to 3.5 per cent in 2012 and 4.1 per cent in 2013, with small upward revisions for both years since its January forecasts. As had been the case in recent years, emerging market economies, particularly in Asia, were expected to be the main driver of global growth. The IMF continued to see the balance of risks to the global economy weighted to the downside.
In Europe, aggregate measures of consumer confidence had improved and exports had picked up. Retail sales and investment indicators had steadied at lower levels. The combination of this and the deterioration in business conditions was indicative of ongoing contraction in output of the region as a whole. Members noted that while European leaders had made some progress in addressing fiscal imbalances and implementing structural reforms, much work still needed to be done. Further, the task continued to be complicated by the negative feedback loop between fiscal consolidation, private-sector deleveraging and weak growth.
For the US economy, members noted that GDP growth had slowed slightly in the March quarter, which, along with other data, confirmed that growth had been a little below trend. Labour market conditions remained positive, which had been supporting consumption, although indicators of business investment and flat industrial production suggested that growth had slowed in recent months. Members observed that the housing market would probably continue to weigh on economic activity for some time, with a large number of mortgages still in foreclosure. Furthermore, uncertainty regarding the legislated fiscal consolidation in 2013 was another factor likely to weigh on household and business confidence during the period ahead.
Growth in China had moderated to a more sustainable pace, with GDP growing by 1.8 per cent in the March quarter, to be 8.1 per cent higher over the year. The slowdown was largely attributed to slower growth in domestic demand, as had been intended by the Chinese authorities through tighter domestic policies. Nevertheless, the residential property market remained weak, with property prices continuing to fall. Activity in the rest of east Asia continued to recover from the natural disasters in 2011, which had disrupted supply chains throughout the region. Business and consumer confidence had generally improved, while exports had been supported by a pick-up in demand from the United States. Inflation pressures across the region had continued to moderate.
Commodity prices overall had been relatively stable recently, and had increased only slightly over the year to date. The spot price for iron ore had continued to drift higher since the start of the year, consistent with signs of a recovery in Chinese steel production as well as some supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil. In contrast, coking coal prices had softened as supply from Queensland had returned to its level prior to the flooding in early 2011, and base metals prices had trended lower in recent months.
Domestic Economic Conditions
Members noted that the available indicators suggested that the domestic economy had been growing modestly in early 2012, although the pace of activity had continued to vary significantly across industries. The mining sector remained exceptionally strong, with work progressing on the very large pipeline of committed projects and capital imports rising strongly. Mining production had, nevertheless, been disrupted by adverse weather, industrial action and a shortage of explosives.
Conditions faced by many firms not exposed to the mining sector remained weak, with the high level of the exchange rate continuing to weigh on import-competing and exporting firms. Conditions remained particularly difficult in parts of the building, construction and manufacturing industries, as well as for many retailers. Survey measures also pointed to a softening in conditions in the business services sector, consistent with weakness in property markets and the non-mining sectors more generally.
Growth in consumer spending had eased in the December quarter and recent indicators suggested that consumption growth was a little below trend in early 2012, with consumers evidently concerned about their personal finances and job security. Consistent with this, the value of retail sales, which had been one of the weakest components of consumption over the past year, was soft in January and February.
Members were briefed on the continued weakness in the housing market generally and residential building activity in particular. Demand for housing finance had eased in the past few months and recent data suggested that dwelling prices had continued to decline, although there were tentative signs that the pace of decline had been more gradual overall in recent months. Despite dwelling prices declining relative to incomes and rises in rental yields, forward-looking indicators implied little prospect of an imminent recovery in housing construction. Information from liaison suggested that households were unwilling to commit to contracts for new dwellings because of concerns about job security and declining dwelling prices.
Employment growth had picked up a little in the March quarter. Together with a small fall in the participation rate, this had left the unemployment rate at around 5¼ per cent. The decline in participation along with weakness in trend hours worked were indicators of some increase in spare capacity in the labour market in recent months. Members noted that the data showed evidence of structural change, as employment in the mining sector had expanded rapidly while firms in a number of other sectors were responding to heightened competitive pressures by reducing employment in an effort to contain costs and improve productivity. Leading indicators, such as surveys and job vacancies, painted a mixed picture, but generally suggested modest employment growth in the period ahead.
Inflation in the March quarter was lower than expected, with various measures showing underlying inflation of around ¼ per cent in the quarter and 2–2¼ per cent on a year-ended basis. The headline CPI fell by 0.2 per cent in the quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, to be 1.6 per cent higher over the year. A large fall in fruit prices, in particular banana prices, had subtracted 0.3 percentage points from quarterly inflation. More generally, tradables prices declined, reflecting both the softness in consumer demand and further pass-through of the earlier exchange rate appreciation, with the prices of some household goods, clothing and overseas holidays all falling in the quarter. Non-tradables prices, in contrast, increased by 0.7 per cent in the quarter and by 3.5 per cent over the year, underpinned by relatively large increases in a range of services prices but with falls in the prices of domestic travel & accommodation and new dwellings. The slowing in non-tradables inflation, and some of the decline in tradables prices, appeared to indicate that there had been pressure on margins owing to the relative softness in demand in the non-mining sector.
Members were briefed on the updated staff forecasts. The central estimate was for GDP to grow by around 3 per cent over 2012 and 2013, although employment growth was expected to remain subdued in the near term. Forecasts of mining investment had been revised higher, with information from liaison and ABS data indicating more work in the pipeline than had previously been expected. This investment was anticipated to provide stimulus to a number of other sectors, but growth outside of the mining sector was expected to be below trend in the near term, affected by the high exchange rate, softer government spending and subdued conditions in the housing market and building industry more generally. The forecast for export growth had been revised lower, largely reflecting a reassessment of the ability of mining companies to utilise new port and transport capacity fully in the near term, along with weaker manufacturing exports.
Members observed that the expected outlook for inflation was somewhat lower than the previous forecast made in February. Underlying inflation (excluding the effect of the carbon price) was forecast to remain within the lower half of the target range over the next few years, staying close to the recent rate of inflation over the next year before picking up a little later in the forecast period. Headline inflation would be affected by a number of one-off factors in the near term. The unwinding of the earlier spike in fruit prices would hold down year-ended inflation in the first half of 2012, followed by the introduction of the carbon price from the September quarter, which was expected to boost headline inflation by around 0.7 percentage points and underlying inflation by around ¼ percentage point over the year to June 2013.
Financial Markets
Sentiment in global financial markets deteriorated in April, following several months of improvement. Members noted that the deterioration had not been triggered by any particular event but, rather, it reflected renewed concerns about the inter-related state of public finances and weakness of economic activity in the euro area. This had been most evident for Spain and Italy, where yields on government bonds had risen significantly as foreign investors reduced their exposures by not rolling over maturing debt and selling debt in the secondary market.
Imminent elections in France and Greece had spurred further concern on the part of investors, with a risk that parties supportive of the Greek assistance package would not be able to form a new government. Investors had also focused on the Netherlands following the resignation of the Dutch Prime Minister and cabinet because of an inability to agree on fiscal austerity measures.
Reflecting the concerns about the euro area, as well as some weaker-than-expected data in the United States and China, government bond yields for the major advanced economies had declined. Yields on US 10-year bonds had fallen below 2 per cent again, while yields on 10‑year bonds in Germany fell to historic lows. In Australia, the expectation of a reduction in the policy rate had resulted in government bond yields declining by more than those in overseas markets, with the yield on 10-year Australian government debt falling to a 60-year low of 3.64 per cent. Yields on Australian state debt also fell to multi-decade lows, even though spreads to Australian government debt had widened a little over the month.
Members noted that bond issuance by Australian banks had been lower in April, although this followed particularly strong issuance in recent months and in part reflected an issuance blackout ahead of three of the major banks announcing their profit results. Deposit rates at Australian banks remained relatively high, with no sign of competitive pressures easing. Reflecting this, banks' margins were estimated to be somewhat narrower than in the middle of 2011, notwithstanding recent increases in some lending rates.
Global equity markets declined in April, reflecting some large falls in Europe and Japan. Australian equities had outperformed global markets over this period, mainly because Australian bank share prices had risen compared with large falls globally for banks, particularly in Europe.
Currency markets generally had been less affected by the deterioration in global sentiment, although the yen was again appreciating, reversing some of its depreciation earlier in the year. Members observed that the Chinese renminbi had been broadly unchanged over April and that the authorities had announced a wider trading band for the currency. The Australian dollar had also been relatively steady, remaining at a high level both against the US dollar and on a trade-weighted basis, despite the lower-than-expected inflation data.
On domestic monetary policy, members noted that the market was more than fully pricing in a 25 basis point reduction in the cash rate in May, with a 40 per cent chance of a 50 basis point reduction. Market pricing embodied an expectation that the cash rate would decline to 3¼ per cent by the end of the year.
Considerations for Monetary Policy
Although the latest forecasts for global growth had been revised up slightly – with growth rising to around trend in 2013 – members noted that the international economic and financial environment remained quite uncertain. Conditions were weak in the euro area, and the risk of an escalation of sovereign debt problems remained. Prospects were for the US economy to continue its gradual recovery, while growth in China was likely to be slower than in recent years but on a more sustainable footing. Growth in the rest of Asia was expected to increase, despite continuing to be restrained somewhat by the trade and financial linkages with the advanced economies.
Recent evidence suggested that the Australian economy was growing somewhat below trend. While the mining boom continued to gain momentum, overall growth was being weighed down by weakness in other sectors of the economy.
At the same time, credit growth for households had been marginally lower over the past year than over the previous year, and business credit was rising at only a very modest rate. Elevated competitive pressures had kept deposit rates in Australia high relative to the cash rate. At the margin, wholesale funding costs had declined over recent months, though they remained higher, relative to benchmark rates, than in mid 2011, and the lagged effects of this were still working their way through the funding structure. The rise in funding costs had led banks to increase their lending rates over recent months by around 10–12 basis points.
The March quarter CPI had confirmed that, in underlying terms, inflation had slowed over recent quarters after a rise during the early part of 2011. The staff assessment was that inflation was likely to remain in the lower half of the target range over the foreseeable future, with cost pressures expected to be contained given the forecast for moderate growth in the economy. This forecast assumed that the soft conditions currently being experienced would lead to lower growth in unit costs.
Since the Board eased monetary policy late in 2011, new information had led the Bank to lower somewhat its assessment of the pace of growth of the economy. At previous meetings, members had agreed that if slower growth in demand resulted in more moderate inflation, it would strengthen the case for a further easing in monetary policy. Given recently accumulated information on demand and the rate of inflation, together with the revised forecasts that had been presented, members considered it appropriate for monetary policy to be eased. Members noted that interest rates faced by the general community had tended to increase a little since the Board's previous change to the cash rate in December. They judged it to be desirable that interest rates move below those that had prevailed in December. Accordingly, the Board decided that a reduction of 50 basis points in the cash rate was, in this instance, necessary in order to deliver the appropriate level of borrowing rates.
The Decision
The Board decided to lower the cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.75 per cent, effective 2 May.
ATC
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Ấn Độ chưa thoát nguy cơ chịu trừng phạt của Mỹ do nhập dầu Iran
Mỹ không hài lòng với nỗ lực giảm nhập dầu thô từ Iran của Ấn Độ mặc dù New Delhi đã được cảnh báo trước về các lệnh trừng phạt tài chính.
Lượng nhập khẩu dầu từ Iran của Ấn Độ đã giảm 34% trong tháng 4 so với tháng trước, dữ liệu tàu chở hàng cho biết vào tuần trước.
Tuy nhiên, số liệu này vẫn chưa khiến Mỹ hài lòng. Ngoại trưởng Mỹ Hillary Clinton cho rằng Ấn Độ cần cắt giảm số lượng nhập khẩu nhiều hơn nữa.
Ấn Độ - nước nhập khẩu dầu thô chủ yếu từ Iran là con bài quan trọng của Mỹ để siết chặt trừng phạt kinh tế Iran buộc Tehran từ bỏ chương trình hạt nhân mà Mỹ và các nước phương Tây nghi ngờ là để chế tạo vũ khí nguyên tử. Vấn đề này đã trở thành rào cản trong quan hệ giữa hai nước.
Mỹ đã đề nghị Nhật Bản và 10 nước trong Liên minh châu Âu hạn chế nhập dầu mỏ với Iran, nhưng không quy định cụ thể mỗi quốc gia phải cắt giảm bao nhiêu % lượng dầu nhập từ Iran để tránh lệnh trừng phạt của Mỹ. Trong tháng 4, Nhật Bản đã giảm gần 80% (tương đương 250.000 thùng/ngày) so với 2 tháng đầu năm 2012.
(ol)
Mỹ không hài lòng với nỗ lực giảm nhập dầu thô từ Iran của Ấn Độ mặc dù New Delhi đã được cảnh báo trước về các lệnh trừng phạt tài chính.
Lượng nhập khẩu dầu từ Iran của Ấn Độ đã giảm 34% trong tháng 4 so với tháng trước, dữ liệu tàu chở hàng cho biết vào tuần trước.
Tuy nhiên, số liệu này vẫn chưa khiến Mỹ hài lòng. Ngoại trưởng Mỹ Hillary Clinton cho rằng Ấn Độ cần cắt giảm số lượng nhập khẩu nhiều hơn nữa.
Ấn Độ - nước nhập khẩu dầu thô chủ yếu từ Iran là con bài quan trọng của Mỹ để siết chặt trừng phạt kinh tế Iran buộc Tehran từ bỏ chương trình hạt nhân mà Mỹ và các nước phương Tây nghi ngờ là để chế tạo vũ khí nguyên tử. Vấn đề này đã trở thành rào cản trong quan hệ giữa hai nước.
Mỹ đã đề nghị Nhật Bản và 10 nước trong Liên minh châu Âu hạn chế nhập dầu mỏ với Iran, nhưng không quy định cụ thể mỗi quốc gia phải cắt giảm bao nhiêu % lượng dầu nhập từ Iran để tránh lệnh trừng phạt của Mỹ. Trong tháng 4, Nhật Bản đã giảm gần 80% (tương đương 250.000 thùng/ngày) so với 2 tháng đầu năm 2012.
(ol)
ATC
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IMF có kế hoạch chi 2 tỷ USD để mua vàng
Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế (IMF) có kế hoạch chi hơn 2 tỷ USD để mua vàng trong bối cảnh rủi ro toàn cầu tăng lên. Hiện quỹ có khoảng 2.800 tấn vàng dự trữ.
Bloomberg dẫn lời một quan chức thuộc IMF cho biết, IMF đang phải đối mặt với rủi ro tín dụng gia tăng do phải mở rộng hoạt động cho vay trong bối cảnh khủng hoảng kinh tế toàn cầu. Dù rằng quỹ có cả hệ thống quản lý rủi ro tín dụng chặt chẽ, bao gồm cả các chính sách cho vay, nhưng cơ quan này vẫn muốn tăng dự trữ vàng để giảm bớt rủi ro.
Người này cho biết thêm, IMF sẽ chi hơn 2,3 tỷ USD cho việc mua thêm vàng.
Đối tượng vay nợ quan trọng của IMF bao gồm các nước khu vực đồng euro như Hy Lạp và Bồ Đào Nha. Hy Lạp là con nợ lớn nhất của IMF và nước này đang trải qua những bất ổn chính trị với nguy cơ mất khả năng kiểm soát tài chính ngày càng tăng. Các nước khác như Tây Ban Nha cũng đã rơi vào suy thoái sau kết quả tăng trưởng GDP âm ở quý đầu năm nay. Các nước còn lại trong khu vực trong khi đó đối mặt với hoạt động sản xuất và tăng trưởng chững lại.
(TCTG.net)
Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế (IMF) có kế hoạch chi hơn 2 tỷ USD để mua vàng trong bối cảnh rủi ro toàn cầu tăng lên. Hiện quỹ có khoảng 2.800 tấn vàng dự trữ.
Bloomberg dẫn lời một quan chức thuộc IMF cho biết, IMF đang phải đối mặt với rủi ro tín dụng gia tăng do phải mở rộng hoạt động cho vay trong bối cảnh khủng hoảng kinh tế toàn cầu. Dù rằng quỹ có cả hệ thống quản lý rủi ro tín dụng chặt chẽ, bao gồm cả các chính sách cho vay, nhưng cơ quan này vẫn muốn tăng dự trữ vàng để giảm bớt rủi ro.
Người này cho biết thêm, IMF sẽ chi hơn 2,3 tỷ USD cho việc mua thêm vàng.
Đối tượng vay nợ quan trọng của IMF bao gồm các nước khu vực đồng euro như Hy Lạp và Bồ Đào Nha. Hy Lạp là con nợ lớn nhất của IMF và nước này đang trải qua những bất ổn chính trị với nguy cơ mất khả năng kiểm soát tài chính ngày càng tăng. Các nước khác như Tây Ban Nha cũng đã rơi vào suy thoái sau kết quả tăng trưởng GDP âm ở quý đầu năm nay. Các nước còn lại trong khu vực trong khi đó đối mặt với hoạt động sản xuất và tăng trưởng chững lại.
(TCTG.net)
thatnghiep
New Member
FUJI
New Member
à, sàn mà Fuji đánh thì vẫn đang lời lệnh này, vì ko bị sl, xém thôi, nhưng với Fuji nếu có bị dính, mà fuji thấy không rơi tiếp, thì fuji vẫn buy lại.
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gold thì 1563-66 hay xa tùy tình hình, không nói nổi em này
Thực ra Fuji cũng không cần trả lời câu hỏi này, vì người hỏi không thiện cảm, nhưng coi như HÒA KHÍ SINH TÀI, trong người hôm nay lời nên vui vẻ.
Chúc bạn may mắn!
FUJI
New Member
QUÝ 1: KINH TẾ ĐỨC TĂNG TRƯỞNG GẤP 5 LẦN SO VỚI DỰ BÁO
(15-05-2012)
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Kinh tế Đức trong quý I bất ngờ tăng trưởng gấp 5 lần so với dự báo do xuất khẩu đến các thị trường mới nổi bù đắp được sự sụt giảm của nhu cầu từ khu vực đồng euro.
Theo số liệu được Tổng cục thống kê liên bang Đức công bố, GDP của nền kinh tế lớn nhất châu Âu tăng 0,5% trong quý I trong khi giảm 0,2% trong quý IV năm 2011. Các chuyên gia kinh tế trước đó dự báo GDP sẽ chỉ tăng 0,1%.
Với tình hình kinh tế các nước trong khu vực từ Hy Lạp đến Tây Ban Nha ảm đạm, các công ty Đức đã chuyển hướng tập trung sang các thị trường khác. Các công ty sản xuất xe hơi và nhà cung cấp giờ đây hưởng lợi từ nhu cầu của các thị trường tăng trưởng nhanh như Trung Quốc, trong khi tỷ lệ thất nghiệp giảm và lương tăng thúc đẩy tiêu dùng trong nước. Niềm tin kinh doanh tăng tháng thứ 6 liên tiếp sau khi các công ty công bố lợi nhuận quý I cao hơn so với dự báo.
Cùng ngày, Pháp cũng công bố GDP tăng 0% trong quý I. Tổng cộng GDP của khu vực eurozone giảm 0,2%.
Theo dự báo của Ủy ban châu Âu kinh tế Đức sẽ tăng trưởng 0,7% trong năm 2012 và 1,7% trong năm 2013. Ngược lại, tăng trưởng kinh tế của cả eurozone sẽ bị giảm xuống.
Chỉ số DAX Index – chỉ số cơ bản của thị trường chứng khoán Đức đã tăng 9,4% từ đầu năm đến nay trong khi chỉ số Stoxx Europe 600 tăng 1%. Đồng euro tiếp tục tăng giá từ mức 1,2823 USD lên 1,2856 USD sau khi báo cáo được công bố.
Minh Anh
Theo TTVN/Bloomberg
(15-05-2012)
Font Font + Font ++
Kinh tế Đức trong quý I bất ngờ tăng trưởng gấp 5 lần so với dự báo do xuất khẩu đến các thị trường mới nổi bù đắp được sự sụt giảm của nhu cầu từ khu vực đồng euro.
Theo số liệu được Tổng cục thống kê liên bang Đức công bố, GDP của nền kinh tế lớn nhất châu Âu tăng 0,5% trong quý I trong khi giảm 0,2% trong quý IV năm 2011. Các chuyên gia kinh tế trước đó dự báo GDP sẽ chỉ tăng 0,1%.
Với tình hình kinh tế các nước trong khu vực từ Hy Lạp đến Tây Ban Nha ảm đạm, các công ty Đức đã chuyển hướng tập trung sang các thị trường khác. Các công ty sản xuất xe hơi và nhà cung cấp giờ đây hưởng lợi từ nhu cầu của các thị trường tăng trưởng nhanh như Trung Quốc, trong khi tỷ lệ thất nghiệp giảm và lương tăng thúc đẩy tiêu dùng trong nước. Niềm tin kinh doanh tăng tháng thứ 6 liên tiếp sau khi các công ty công bố lợi nhuận quý I cao hơn so với dự báo.
Cùng ngày, Pháp cũng công bố GDP tăng 0% trong quý I. Tổng cộng GDP của khu vực eurozone giảm 0,2%.
Theo dự báo của Ủy ban châu Âu kinh tế Đức sẽ tăng trưởng 0,7% trong năm 2012 và 1,7% trong năm 2013. Ngược lại, tăng trưởng kinh tế của cả eurozone sẽ bị giảm xuống.
Chỉ số DAX Index – chỉ số cơ bản của thị trường chứng khoán Đức đã tăng 9,4% từ đầu năm đến nay trong khi chỉ số Stoxx Europe 600 tăng 1%. Đồng euro tiếp tục tăng giá từ mức 1,2823 USD lên 1,2856 USD sau khi báo cáo được công bố.
Minh Anh
Theo TTVN/Bloomberg
ATC
Thành Viên Có Cống Hiến GOLD24K.INFO
Overview of the Inflation Report May 2012
Output had barely grown for a year and a half and was estimated to have contracted slightly in the past two quarters. The euro-area economy remained weak, but global activity overall continued to expand at a moderate pace. A number of one-off factors are likely to affect the pattern of quarterly growth of domestic output during 2012. Looking through those effects, underlying demand growth is likely to remain subdued in the near term, before a gentle increase in households’ real incomes and consumption helps the recovery to gain traction. Stimulus from monetary policy should continue to support demand, although headwinds from the external environment, tight credit conditions and the fiscal consolidation are likely to persist. The possibility that the substantial challenges within the euro area will lead to significant economic and financial disruption continues to pose the greatest threat to the UK recovery.
CPI inflation stood at 3.5% in March 2012, down from a peak of 5.2% in September 2011. That fall reflected the effects of earlier increases in energy prices and VAT dropping out of the twelve-month inflation rate. The prospects for inflation are uncertain. The near-term outlook is judged to be somewhat higher than expected three months ago, with inflation now likely to remain above the 2% target for the next year or so. But a gradual easing in the impact of external price pressures, together with a continuing drag from economic slack, should lead inflation to fall back to around the target. Under the assumptions that Bank Rate moves in line with market interest rates and the size of the asset purchase programme remains at £325 billion, the risks of inflation being above or below the target by the end of the forecast period are judged to be broadly balanced.
Financial and credit markets
Since the February Inflation Report, the MPC has maintained Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of its asset purchase programme at £325 billion. The European Central Bank’s longer-term refinancing operations were associated with an initial improvement in bank funding conditions, although some indicators of unsecured funding costs subsequently picked up. Spreads on some euro-area countries’ government debt remained elevated. UK banks raised significant funds from debt markets in 2012 Q1. They continued to pass through earlier rises in their funding costs to mortgage rates. Money growth picked up in Q1; credit growth remained weak. Sterling has appreciated by 3% since the February Report.
Demand
Global growth remained uneven across different regions. Output in the euro area — the United Kingdom’s most important trading partner — contracted in 2011 Q4 and business surveys pointed to a further fall in 2012 Q1. In contrast, the US economy recorded solid increases, supported by household spending. Activity in the emerging economies expanded steadily, albeit more slowly than at the beginning of last year. UK exports grew modestly in 2011, underpinned by solid export growth to non-EU countries.
At home, GDP growth was weak during 2011. That weakness was concentrated within domestic demand. Consumption fell, as the squeeze on real incomes continued and households saved more. And business investment remained significantly below its pre-crisis level, held back by weak demand, heightened uncertainty and tight credit conditions.
Output was provisionally estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in 2012 Q1, the second consecutive quarter of contraction. That fall was driven by a large decline in measured construction output. Growth in the rest of the economy was also estimated to be weak, with manufacturing and services output both broadly flat. But business surveys, labour market developments and reports from the Bank’s Agents all pointed to somewhat stronger activity in the first quarter, suggesting that the underlying picture was less weak.
The Committee’s projections are conditioned on the tax and spending plans set out in the March Budget. Those plans suggest that the reduction in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of nominal GDP is likely to be a little slower in 2012/13 than in the previous two years.
The outlook for GDP growth
Chart 1 shows the Committee’s best collective judgement for four-quarter GDP growth, assuming that Bank Rate follows a path implied by market interest rates and the size of the asset purchase programme stays at £325 billion. The pattern of quarterly growth in 2012 is likely to be affected by a number of one-off factors, including the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee and the Olympics. Looking through those effects, underlying growth is likely to remain subdued in the near term before a gentle increase in households’ real incomes and consumption helps the recovery to gain traction. Stimulus from monetary policy should help to support activity, but continued strains within the euro area, tight credit conditions and the fiscal consolidation are all likely to temper the pace of expansion.
Chart 1
GDP projection based on market interest rate expectations and £325 billion asset purchases
Please click on the image above to view an enlarged version of the chart.
The fan chart depicts the probability of various outcomes for GDP growth. It has been conditioned on the assumption that the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves remains at £325 billion throughout the forecast period. To the left of the first vertical dashed line, the distribution reflects the likelihood of revisions to the data over the past; to the right, it reflects uncertainty over the evolution of GDP growth in the future. If economic circumstances identical to today’s were to prevail on 100 occasions, the MPC’s best collective judgement is that the mature estimate of GDP growth would lie within the darkest central band on only 10 of those occasions. The fan chart is constructed so that outturns are also expected to lie within each pair of the lighter green areas on 10 occasions. In any particular quarter of the forecast period, GDP growth is therefore expected to lie somewhere within the fan on 90 out of 100 occasions. And on the remaining 10 out of 100 occasions GDP growth can fall anywhere outside the green area of the fan chart. Over the forecast period, this has been depicted by the light grey background. In any quarter of the forecast period, the probability mass in each pair of identically coloured bands sums to 10%. The distribution of that 10% between the bands below and above the central projection varies according to the skew at each quarter, with the distribution given by the ratio of the width of the bands below the central projection to the bands above it. In Chart 1, the probabilities in the lower bands are the same as those in the upper bands at Years 1, 2 and 3. See the box on page 39 of the November 2007 Inflation Report for a fuller description of the fan chart and what it represents. The second dashed line is drawn at the two-year point of the projection.
The prospects for UK growth remain unusually uncertain. The single biggest threat to the recovery stems from the challenges within the euro area, in particular the need to reduce the indebtedness and improve the competitiveness of some member countries. Even if a credible and effective set of policies is successfully implemented, the scale of the necessary adjustments suggests that a prolonged period of sluggish growth and heightened uncertainty is likely. A failure to implement such policies could have severe implications for the UK economy. As was the case in past Reports, the MPC sees no meaningful way to quantify the size and likelihood of the most extreme possibilities associated with developments in the euro area, and they are therefore excluded from the fan charts. But the threat of these more extreme outcomes is likely to affect economic activity over the forecast period, for example through its effect on asset prices, including the exchange rate, bank funding costs, and confidence; such effects are captured in the MPC’s projections.
Domestically, the strength of the recovery will depend on whether households have further to adjust to the erosion in their purchasing power and to the more uncertain economic environment. The path of domestic spending will also depend on: the pace of productivity growth and how that affects households’ and companies’ earnings; the extent to which the availability of bank credit improves; and the effects on growth of both fiscal and monetary policy.
There remains a range of views among Committee members about the outlook for GDP growth. On the same assumptions as above, the Committee’s best collective judgement is that growth is likely to remain subdued in the near term, but that by the third year of the forecast, the chances of GDP growth being above or below its historical average are broadly balanced. The projected distribution for growth is lower than in the February Inflation Report, reflecting weaker growth around the start of this year, a higher near-term outlook for inflation and a more gradual pickup in productivity growth.
Recent growth has been weak by historical standards. Chart 2 shows that output has been broadly flat since the middle of 2010 and is not likely to surpass its pre-crisis level before 2014. The weakness appears to have been associated with unusually slow growth in potential supply. Even so, the Committee judges that there exists a sizable margin of spare capacity, largely concentrated in the labour market. That should diminish towards the end of the forecast period, but is unlikely to close completely.
Chart 2
Projection of the level of GDP based on market interest rate expectations and
£325 billion asset purchases
Please click on the image above to view an enlarged version of the chart.
Chained-volume measure (reference year 2008). See the footnote to Chart 1 for details of the assumptions underlying the projection for GDP growth. The width of this fan over the past has been calibrated to be consistent with the four-quarter growth fan chart, under the assumption that revisions to quarterly growth are independent of the revisions to previous quarters. Over the forecast, the mean and modal paths for the level of GDP are consistent with Chart 1. So the skews for the level fan chart have been constructed from the skews in the four-quarter growth fan chart at the one, two and three-year horizons. This calibration also takes account of the likely path dependency of the economy, where, for example, it is judged that shocks to GDP growth in one quarter will continue to have some effect on GDP growth in successive quarters. This assumption of path dependency serves to widen the fan chart.
Costs and prices
CPI inflation stood at 3.5% in March 2012, down from 5.2% in September 2011. That fall reflected the effects of earlier increases in energy prices and VAT dropping out of the twelve-month comparison. The elevated rate of inflation in March largely reflected the effects of past increases in import and energy prices. In contrast, there had not been strong growth in domestic costs: companies’ unit labour costs had increased at around their average historical rate over the past year. Most indicators of longer-term inflation expectations remained relatively close to their series averages.
Private sector employment has increased substantially since the middle of 2010, despite weak output growth. The Labour Force Survey measure of unemployment edged lower in the three months to February. Even so, there remained a wide margin of slack in the labour market and this, along with weak productivity growth, continued to bear down on earnings growth, which declined further in early 2012.
The outlook for inflation
Chart 3 shows the Committee’s best collective judgement of the outlook for CPI inflation, based on the same assumptions as Chart 1. The near-term outlook is higher than in the February Report, with inflation likely to remain above the 2% target for the next year or so. This upward revision reflects both the impact of higher energy prices and indirect taxes, and also a judgement that cost pressures from past rises in commodity prices and weak productivity are likely to have a greater impact on inflation in the near term than expected three months ago. But a gradual easing in the impact of external price pressures and a continuing drag from economic slack should cause inflation to fall back to around the target in the second half of the forecast period.
Chart 3
CPI inflation projection based on market interest rate expectations and £325 billion asset purchases
Please click on the image above to view an enlarged version of the chart.
The fan chart depicts the probability of various outcomes for CPI inflation in the future. It has been conditioned on the assumption that the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves remains at £325 billion throughout the forecast period. If economic circumstances identical to today’s were to prevail on 100 occasions, the MPC’s best collective judgement is that inflation in any particular quarter would lie within the darkest central band on only 10 of those occasions. The fan chart is constructed so that outturns of inflation are also expected to lie within each pair of the lighter red areas on 10 occasions. In any particular quarter of the forecast period, inflation is therefore expected to lie somewhere within the fan on 90 out of 100 occasions. And on the remaining 10 out of 100 occasions inflation can fall anywhere outside the red area of the fan chart. Over the forecast period, this has been depicted by the light grey background. In any quarter of the forecast period, the probability mass in each pair of identically coloured bands sums to 10%. The distribution of that 10% between the bands below and above the central projection varies according to the skew at each quarter, with the distribution given by the ratio of the width of the bands below the central projection to the bands above it. In Chart 3, the probabilities in the upper bands are the same as those in the lower bands at Year 1 but they are slightly larger at Years 2 and 3. See the box on pages 48–49 of the May 2002 Inflation Report for a fuller description of the fan chart and what it represents. The dashed line is drawn at the two-year point.
The prospects for inflation remain uncertain, not least because it is difficult to gauge with any precision the current strength of underlying inflationary pressure. The extent to which inflation slows in the near term depends on the pace at which external price pressures ease, and hence on developments in commodity and other import prices. The path of inflation will also depend on the growth in companies’ domestic costs, which will be heavily affected by the pace of productivity growth and the extent to which slack in the labour market limits wage growth. The degree to which companies seek to restore their profit margins by raising prices will also have an important bearing on inflation.
The difficulty of predicting the precise impact of these influences means that the Committee places more weight on the broad shape of the inflation outlook than its exact calibration. And there remains a range of views among Committee members regarding the relative strength of different factors. On balance, however, the Committee’s best collective judgement, based on the conditioning assumptions described above, is that by the end of the forecast period, the risks of inflation being above or below the 2% target are broadly balanced (Chart 4).
Chart 4
An indicator of the probability that inflation will be above the target
Please click on the image above to view an enlarged version of the chart.
The May and February swathes in this chart are derived from the same distributions as
Chart 3 and Chart 5.7 on page 41 respectively. They indicate the assessed probability of inflation being above target in each quarter of the forecast period. The 5 percentage points width of the swathes reflects the fact that there is uncertainty about the precise probability in any given quarter, but they should not be interpreted as confidence intervals. The dashed line is drawn at the two-year point of the May projection. The two-year point of the February projection was one quarter earlier.
The policy decision
At its May meeting, the Committee noted that, despite the changes in the near-term outlook, the fundamental policy challenges following the financial crisis and subsequent recession remained the same. GDP growth was likely to remain weak in the near term and to strengthen gradually thereafter. Developments in the euro area continued to pose a significant threat to that outlook. Inflation had declined sharply since last autumn, broadly as the Committee had expected. And although inflation was likely to remain above 2% for the next year or so, it was nevertheless likely to fall back gradually to around the target. The Committee therefore decided that it was appropriate to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the asset purchase programme at £325 billion in order to meet the 2% CPI inflation target over the medium term.
Output had barely grown for a year and a half and was estimated to have contracted slightly in the past two quarters. The euro-area economy remained weak, but global activity overall continued to expand at a moderate pace. A number of one-off factors are likely to affect the pattern of quarterly growth of domestic output during 2012. Looking through those effects, underlying demand growth is likely to remain subdued in the near term, before a gentle increase in households’ real incomes and consumption helps the recovery to gain traction. Stimulus from monetary policy should continue to support demand, although headwinds from the external environment, tight credit conditions and the fiscal consolidation are likely to persist. The possibility that the substantial challenges within the euro area will lead to significant economic and financial disruption continues to pose the greatest threat to the UK recovery.
CPI inflation stood at 3.5% in March 2012, down from a peak of 5.2% in September 2011. That fall reflected the effects of earlier increases in energy prices and VAT dropping out of the twelve-month inflation rate. The prospects for inflation are uncertain. The near-term outlook is judged to be somewhat higher than expected three months ago, with inflation now likely to remain above the 2% target for the next year or so. But a gradual easing in the impact of external price pressures, together with a continuing drag from economic slack, should lead inflation to fall back to around the target. Under the assumptions that Bank Rate moves in line with market interest rates and the size of the asset purchase programme remains at £325 billion, the risks of inflation being above or below the target by the end of the forecast period are judged to be broadly balanced.
Financial and credit markets
Since the February Inflation Report, the MPC has maintained Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of its asset purchase programme at £325 billion. The European Central Bank’s longer-term refinancing operations were associated with an initial improvement in bank funding conditions, although some indicators of unsecured funding costs subsequently picked up. Spreads on some euro-area countries’ government debt remained elevated. UK banks raised significant funds from debt markets in 2012 Q1. They continued to pass through earlier rises in their funding costs to mortgage rates. Money growth picked up in Q1; credit growth remained weak. Sterling has appreciated by 3% since the February Report.
Demand
Global growth remained uneven across different regions. Output in the euro area — the United Kingdom’s most important trading partner — contracted in 2011 Q4 and business surveys pointed to a further fall in 2012 Q1. In contrast, the US economy recorded solid increases, supported by household spending. Activity in the emerging economies expanded steadily, albeit more slowly than at the beginning of last year. UK exports grew modestly in 2011, underpinned by solid export growth to non-EU countries.
At home, GDP growth was weak during 2011. That weakness was concentrated within domestic demand. Consumption fell, as the squeeze on real incomes continued and households saved more. And business investment remained significantly below its pre-crisis level, held back by weak demand, heightened uncertainty and tight credit conditions.
Output was provisionally estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in 2012 Q1, the second consecutive quarter of contraction. That fall was driven by a large decline in measured construction output. Growth in the rest of the economy was also estimated to be weak, with manufacturing and services output both broadly flat. But business surveys, labour market developments and reports from the Bank’s Agents all pointed to somewhat stronger activity in the first quarter, suggesting that the underlying picture was less weak.
The Committee’s projections are conditioned on the tax and spending plans set out in the March Budget. Those plans suggest that the reduction in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of nominal GDP is likely to be a little slower in 2012/13 than in the previous two years.
The outlook for GDP growth
Chart 1 shows the Committee’s best collective judgement for four-quarter GDP growth, assuming that Bank Rate follows a path implied by market interest rates and the size of the asset purchase programme stays at £325 billion. The pattern of quarterly growth in 2012 is likely to be affected by a number of one-off factors, including the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee and the Olympics. Looking through those effects, underlying growth is likely to remain subdued in the near term before a gentle increase in households’ real incomes and consumption helps the recovery to gain traction. Stimulus from monetary policy should help to support activity, but continued strains within the euro area, tight credit conditions and the fiscal consolidation are all likely to temper the pace of expansion.
Chart 1
GDP projection based on market interest rate expectations and £325 billion asset purchases
Please click on the image above to view an enlarged version of the chart.
The fan chart depicts the probability of various outcomes for GDP growth. It has been conditioned on the assumption that the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves remains at £325 billion throughout the forecast period. To the left of the first vertical dashed line, the distribution reflects the likelihood of revisions to the data over the past; to the right, it reflects uncertainty over the evolution of GDP growth in the future. If economic circumstances identical to today’s were to prevail on 100 occasions, the MPC’s best collective judgement is that the mature estimate of GDP growth would lie within the darkest central band on only 10 of those occasions. The fan chart is constructed so that outturns are also expected to lie within each pair of the lighter green areas on 10 occasions. In any particular quarter of the forecast period, GDP growth is therefore expected to lie somewhere within the fan on 90 out of 100 occasions. And on the remaining 10 out of 100 occasions GDP growth can fall anywhere outside the green area of the fan chart. Over the forecast period, this has been depicted by the light grey background. In any quarter of the forecast period, the probability mass in each pair of identically coloured bands sums to 10%. The distribution of that 10% between the bands below and above the central projection varies according to the skew at each quarter, with the distribution given by the ratio of the width of the bands below the central projection to the bands above it. In Chart 1, the probabilities in the lower bands are the same as those in the upper bands at Years 1, 2 and 3. See the box on page 39 of the November 2007 Inflation Report for a fuller description of the fan chart and what it represents. The second dashed line is drawn at the two-year point of the projection.
The prospects for UK growth remain unusually uncertain. The single biggest threat to the recovery stems from the challenges within the euro area, in particular the need to reduce the indebtedness and improve the competitiveness of some member countries. Even if a credible and effective set of policies is successfully implemented, the scale of the necessary adjustments suggests that a prolonged period of sluggish growth and heightened uncertainty is likely. A failure to implement such policies could have severe implications for the UK economy. As was the case in past Reports, the MPC sees no meaningful way to quantify the size and likelihood of the most extreme possibilities associated with developments in the euro area, and they are therefore excluded from the fan charts. But the threat of these more extreme outcomes is likely to affect economic activity over the forecast period, for example through its effect on asset prices, including the exchange rate, bank funding costs, and confidence; such effects are captured in the MPC’s projections.
Domestically, the strength of the recovery will depend on whether households have further to adjust to the erosion in their purchasing power and to the more uncertain economic environment. The path of domestic spending will also depend on: the pace of productivity growth and how that affects households’ and companies’ earnings; the extent to which the availability of bank credit improves; and the effects on growth of both fiscal and monetary policy.
There remains a range of views among Committee members about the outlook for GDP growth. On the same assumptions as above, the Committee’s best collective judgement is that growth is likely to remain subdued in the near term, but that by the third year of the forecast, the chances of GDP growth being above or below its historical average are broadly balanced. The projected distribution for growth is lower than in the February Inflation Report, reflecting weaker growth around the start of this year, a higher near-term outlook for inflation and a more gradual pickup in productivity growth.
Recent growth has been weak by historical standards. Chart 2 shows that output has been broadly flat since the middle of 2010 and is not likely to surpass its pre-crisis level before 2014. The weakness appears to have been associated with unusually slow growth in potential supply. Even so, the Committee judges that there exists a sizable margin of spare capacity, largely concentrated in the labour market. That should diminish towards the end of the forecast period, but is unlikely to close completely.
Chart 2
Projection of the level of GDP based on market interest rate expectations and
£325 billion asset purchases
Please click on the image above to view an enlarged version of the chart.
Chained-volume measure (reference year 2008). See the footnote to Chart 1 for details of the assumptions underlying the projection for GDP growth. The width of this fan over the past has been calibrated to be consistent with the four-quarter growth fan chart, under the assumption that revisions to quarterly growth are independent of the revisions to previous quarters. Over the forecast, the mean and modal paths for the level of GDP are consistent with Chart 1. So the skews for the level fan chart have been constructed from the skews in the four-quarter growth fan chart at the one, two and three-year horizons. This calibration also takes account of the likely path dependency of the economy, where, for example, it is judged that shocks to GDP growth in one quarter will continue to have some effect on GDP growth in successive quarters. This assumption of path dependency serves to widen the fan chart.
Costs and prices
CPI inflation stood at 3.5% in March 2012, down from 5.2% in September 2011. That fall reflected the effects of earlier increases in energy prices and VAT dropping out of the twelve-month comparison. The elevated rate of inflation in March largely reflected the effects of past increases in import and energy prices. In contrast, there had not been strong growth in domestic costs: companies’ unit labour costs had increased at around their average historical rate over the past year. Most indicators of longer-term inflation expectations remained relatively close to their series averages.
Private sector employment has increased substantially since the middle of 2010, despite weak output growth. The Labour Force Survey measure of unemployment edged lower in the three months to February. Even so, there remained a wide margin of slack in the labour market and this, along with weak productivity growth, continued to bear down on earnings growth, which declined further in early 2012.
The outlook for inflation
Chart 3 shows the Committee’s best collective judgement of the outlook for CPI inflation, based on the same assumptions as Chart 1. The near-term outlook is higher than in the February Report, with inflation likely to remain above the 2% target for the next year or so. This upward revision reflects both the impact of higher energy prices and indirect taxes, and also a judgement that cost pressures from past rises in commodity prices and weak productivity are likely to have a greater impact on inflation in the near term than expected three months ago. But a gradual easing in the impact of external price pressures and a continuing drag from economic slack should cause inflation to fall back to around the target in the second half of the forecast period.
Chart 3
CPI inflation projection based on market interest rate expectations and £325 billion asset purchases
Please click on the image above to view an enlarged version of the chart.
The fan chart depicts the probability of various outcomes for CPI inflation in the future. It has been conditioned on the assumption that the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves remains at £325 billion throughout the forecast period. If economic circumstances identical to today’s were to prevail on 100 occasions, the MPC’s best collective judgement is that inflation in any particular quarter would lie within the darkest central band on only 10 of those occasions. The fan chart is constructed so that outturns of inflation are also expected to lie within each pair of the lighter red areas on 10 occasions. In any particular quarter of the forecast period, inflation is therefore expected to lie somewhere within the fan on 90 out of 100 occasions. And on the remaining 10 out of 100 occasions inflation can fall anywhere outside the red area of the fan chart. Over the forecast period, this has been depicted by the light grey background. In any quarter of the forecast period, the probability mass in each pair of identically coloured bands sums to 10%. The distribution of that 10% between the bands below and above the central projection varies according to the skew at each quarter, with the distribution given by the ratio of the width of the bands below the central projection to the bands above it. In Chart 3, the probabilities in the upper bands are the same as those in the lower bands at Year 1 but they are slightly larger at Years 2 and 3. See the box on pages 48–49 of the May 2002 Inflation Report for a fuller description of the fan chart and what it represents. The dashed line is drawn at the two-year point.
The prospects for inflation remain uncertain, not least because it is difficult to gauge with any precision the current strength of underlying inflationary pressure. The extent to which inflation slows in the near term depends on the pace at which external price pressures ease, and hence on developments in commodity and other import prices. The path of inflation will also depend on the growth in companies’ domestic costs, which will be heavily affected by the pace of productivity growth and the extent to which slack in the labour market limits wage growth. The degree to which companies seek to restore their profit margins by raising prices will also have an important bearing on inflation.
The difficulty of predicting the precise impact of these influences means that the Committee places more weight on the broad shape of the inflation outlook than its exact calibration. And there remains a range of views among Committee members regarding the relative strength of different factors. On balance, however, the Committee’s best collective judgement, based on the conditioning assumptions described above, is that by the end of the forecast period, the risks of inflation being above or below the 2% target are broadly balanced (Chart 4).
Chart 4
An indicator of the probability that inflation will be above the target
Please click on the image above to view an enlarged version of the chart.
The May and February swathes in this chart are derived from the same distributions as
Chart 3 and Chart 5.7 on page 41 respectively. They indicate the assessed probability of inflation being above target in each quarter of the forecast period. The 5 percentage points width of the swathes reflects the fact that there is uncertainty about the precise probability in any given quarter, but they should not be interpreted as confidence intervals. The dashed line is drawn at the two-year point of the May projection. The two-year point of the February projection was one quarter earlier.
The policy decision
At its May meeting, the Committee noted that, despite the changes in the near-term outlook, the fundamental policy challenges following the financial crisis and subsequent recession remained the same. GDP growth was likely to remain weak in the near term and to strengthen gradually thereafter. Developments in the euro area continued to pose a significant threat to that outlook. Inflation had declined sharply since last autumn, broadly as the Committee had expected. And although inflation was likely to remain above 2% for the next year or so, it was nevertheless likely to fall back gradually to around the target. The Committee therefore decided that it was appropriate to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the asset purchase programme at £325 billion in order to meet the 2% CPI inflation target over the medium term.
ATC
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Resistance: 1540.00, 1552.00, 1566.00, 1573.00, 1579.00
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying gold around 1529.00 targeting 1540.00, 1556.00 and 1566.00 and stop loss with four-hour closing below 1498.00 might be appropriate
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